Hope & Fear: A Framework for Trends and Foresight Thinking

Foresight often involves sifting through a mix of hope and fear-based signals as you explore how to create the conditions for preferred futures. And, depending on who you are, that preferred future will look different from someone else’s.

The US presidential election is right around the corner, offering a very stark example of this. Democrats and Republicans are offering very different visions for the future of America. According to the brief, we’re also seeing a real political gender gap, with men increasingly identifying as right-wing, and women as left. Depending on who you are, and your political leanings, that preferred future looks different. What gives you hope, and what fills you with fear, will also look different.

You’re in luck though, dear reader; we aren’t going to dive deep into signals related to the US election. There’s enough of that going around already.

Instead, let’s talk about signals we’re seeing across culture today, and how it’s important to remember that the same trends can be interpreted with both hope and fear. Here are some that are top of mind for us right now:

 

AI Cryptids

Jesse Damiani’s Reality Studies substack covered this topic recently, and it’s super-interesting. Generative AIs have become pretty great at creating image and video, to the point where imaginary AI-generated creatures are becoming more commonplace, with a variety of applications from the very mundane to taboo.

Fear: In the most literal sense, the cryptids haunting the “latent space” that is the world of generative AI are truly terrifying. AI cryptids also raise questions about the blurring line between the real and the artificial. As these digital entities become more sophisticated, there’s a fear that our grasp on reality could weaken, making it harder to distinguish between truth and fiction.

Hope: In many ways, these imaginary digital creatures are just an evolution of folklore, and tap into peoples’ love for the weird and fantastical. And, they’re an example of how AI can be used to fuel creativity and new ideas. Maybe all this experimentation and weirdness will help to unlock a new era of creativity in film and television.

 

Play

There is a growing body of research that demonstrates the importance of lifelong play. And the vast majority of people globally say they’re keen to incorporate more play into their lives. It’s no wonder then that immersive experiences like Dopamine land, which encourages people to embrace their inner child, are so popular.

Fear: An emphasis on play in daily life is inarguably good – it promotes joy and creativity. But there is a darker side to play if it becomes too focused on an endless pursuit of dopamine hits. Gamified experiences and digital platforms are often designed to keep people hooked, often exploiting our natural desire for fun and reward. In many respects, we’re living in a world that’s not unlike the iconic Star Trek: TNG episode “The game“.

Hope: It’s easy to feel hopeful about play. How about LA’s Clown Cardio? It aims to turn improv warm-ups and circus props into cardio-based exercise classes and make it less intimidating for people to live healthy, active lifestyles. Or, The National Museum of Singapore’s exhibition Play:Date, which unpacks how play has shaped its cultural heritage. As we adults become more comfortable with play and its benefits, maybe we’ll begin to collectively see it as an investment in public health, rather than an unproductive indulgence.

 

“Post-Woke” Youth Culture

The pivoting perspectives of young people get a lot of attention in trend reports, with individual reports often contradicting one another. No surprise there, given that young people aren’t a monolith. Pion’s 2024 youth trend report challenges a handful of major Gen Z stereotypes, noting that “Gen Zers aren’t the activists you think” and that 90% of Gen Zers would still shop with a brand even if it did something ethically unfavourable.

Fear: Do young people no longer care about social issues? The same report above notes that 28% in the US agreed with the statement “I don’t care if a brand doesn’t share my beliefs”. Research from Pew also shows that many young people feel pessimistic about the ability to effect real change, leading to disengagement. Many express cynicism towards the political system, seeing it as broken or unchangeable, which can diminish their motivation to engage with social issues.

Hope: Maybe today’s youth activism just takes on different forms than millennial activism. Finn Shephard, founder of Both&, a brand designing masculine-fit clothing for “wherever you are on your gender journey,” discussed shifting attitudes through the lens of gender at this year’s World Retail Congress: “The trans discourse is so political and the Pride concept presupposes shame, but the younger generation is not trying to make a statement with their gender.” Integrating social progress into daily life and normalizing change without needing to label it, could be the move.

 

Foresight

Futures practitioners have a nasty habit of being either too optimistic, or too pessimistic when thinking about what’s to come. So, next time you’re scanning the horizon, remember that there are two sides to every worthwhile story. Make a point of considering both the hopeful and fearful interpretations of the trends and signals you uncover.